MANILA, Philippines, November 12 ------ The tropical storm being monitored by the weather bureau entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 3 am on Tuesday, November 12, joining Severe Tropical Storm Nika (Toraji). It was given the local name Ofel, as the Philippines’ 15th tropical cyclone for 2024. Its international name is Usagi, a name contributed by Japan which means rabbit.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 am on Tuesday that Ofel was located 1,170 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 4 am — still too far and not yet directly affecting the country. The tropical storm is moving west northwest at 25 kilometers per hour, slower than its previous speed of 35 km/h. It strengthened further, with its maximum sustained winds now at 75 km/h from 65 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 90 km/h from 80 km/h.
PAGASA said Ofel could make landfall in Northern Luzon or Central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening, November 14. It may hit land “at or near its peak intensity,” possibly as a typhoon — a category it might reach on Wednesday, November 13. “Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards, areas in Northern Luzon are at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from Ofel which may cause considerable impacts,” the weather bureau warned the public. “Moreover, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon may also be affected, especially if the tropical cyclone further expands in size or follows a more southerly path (but within the forecast confidence cone).”
Signal No. 1 might be raised for parts of Cagayan Valley late Tuesday evening or early Wednesday morning, in anticipation of strong winds from Ofel. This would give lead time of 36 hours for preparations. The highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal due to Ofel is Signal No. 4.
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical storm will bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Wednesday, November 13
• Catanduanes
Thursday, November 14
• Batanes, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern part of Camarines Sur, nothern part of Catanduanes
Friday, November 15
• Isabela, northern part of Aurora
On Thursday, Cagayan and Isabela could have heavy to intense rain from Ofel, while Apayao and Kalinga may see moderate to heavy rain. More areas are expected to be added to the rainfall outlook as the tropical storm approaches the country.
Meanwhile, Nika was last spotted 185 kilometers west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, at 4 am on Tuesday. The severe tropical storm continues to move northwest over the West Philippine Sea at a relatively fast 30 km/h, and may exit PAR within 12 hours. Nika weakened again, with its maximum sustained winds down to 95 km/h from 110 km/h. Its gustiness eased further from 150 km/h to 115 km/h. At its peak, Nika was a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h. It was downgraded to a severe tropical storm after crossing Aurora, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, and Ilocos Sur on Monday, November 11. Its landfall was in Dilasag, Aurora, at 8:10 am on Monday.
Even as the severe tropical storm is already moving away from Luzon, it may still bring moderate to heavy rain to Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, and Batanes on Tuesday. For winds, Signal No. 2 due to Nika was already lifted at 5 am on Tuesday. Only Signal No. 1 remains in effect, covering the following areas which are still seeing strong winds from the severe tropical storm:
• Ilocos Norte
• northern part of Ilocos Sur (Lidlidda, Candon City, Galimuyod, Banayoyo, Burgos, Santiago, Santa Maria, San Esteban, Nagbukel, Narvacan, Caoayan, Santa, • Bantay, Vigan City, Santa Catalina, San Vicente, San Ildefonso, Santo Domingo, Magsingal, Cabugao, San Juan, Sinait)
• northern part of Apayao (Kabugao, Pudtol, Luna, Santa Marcela, Calanasan, Flora)
• northern and western parts of Abra (Tineg, Lagangilang, Bucay, Villaviciosa, Lagayan, San Juan, La Paz, Danglas, Pilar, San Isidro, Peñarrubia, Tayum, • Dolores, Bangued, Pidigan, Langiden, San Quintin)
• western part of Babuyan Islands (Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)
• northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Claveria)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Nika was Signal No. 4.
On Tuesday, the northeasterly windflow will also continue to bring strong to gale-force gusts to Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela. In addition, there is still a minimal to moderate risk of storm surges in Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur within 48 hours.
For sea conditions in the next 24 hours, PAGASA provided the following outlook:
Up to very rough or high seas (travel is risky for all vessels)
• Seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur – waves up to 4.5 meters high
Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)
• Seaboards of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region; seaboard of northern Isabela – waves up to 3 meters high
Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)
• Seaboards of northern Aurora and northern Zambales – waves up to 2.5 meters high
• Remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao – waves up to 2 meters high
Nika and Ofel are the second and third tropical cyclones for November, coming after Typhoon Marce (Yinxing), which also battered Northern Luzon.
PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Man-yi outside PAR. It was located 2,870 kilometers east of southeastern Luzon as of 3 am on Tuesday, moving west at only 10 km/h and still far from PAR. Man-yi has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
Source: rappler.com
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