Metro Manila, February 18 ------ Beyond the COVID-19 threat, Filipinos saw climate change, unemployment and economic recession, and increased military tensions as the top three challenges faced by Southeast Asia in 2023, the latest State of Southeast Asia survey found.
According to the study published on Feb. 9, respondents from the Philippines ranked climate change and more intense and frequent weather events as the highest threat across the region. "76.8% of Philippine respondents say that climate change is their biggest threat, overtaking unemployment and recession, as the pain of destruction is felt most acutely from Typhoon Nalgae (Paeng) at the end of October 2022," the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute noted.
More than half also picked joblessness (60.6%) and increased military tensions arising from potential flashpoints such as the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and the Korean Peninsula (50.5%). Meanwhile, majority of Southeast Asians (59.5%) fear unemployment and economic recession as the region tries to bounce back from the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, followed by the worsening climate (57.1%). Widening socio-economic gaps and rising income disparity, and increased military tensions shared the third spot (41.9%).
The ASEAN Studies Centre asked 1,308 Southeast Asian nationals affiliated with the academe, private sector, government, civil society, and regional or international groups from Nov. 14, 2022 to Jan. 6, 2023. Filipinos comprised 7.6% of the total number. It also reported the rising frustration directed at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was described as being "slow and ineffective" resulting in its inability to "cope with fluid political and economic developments and becoming irrelevant in the new world order."
The survey found it remained the top concern of most Southeast Asians (82.6% up from last year's 70.1%), followed by the view that "ASEAN is becoming an arena of major power competition and its member states may become major power proxies." Likewise, more respondents saw that the ASEAN group is becoming "increasingly disunited" and being "elitist and disconnected from the ordinary people," ranking third and fourth, respectively.
Fewer respondents think that the ASEAN would be unable to recover from the pandemic, with only around 37% selecting it as one of their top three concerns out of the five choices, lower than last year's 49%. Increased military tensions became part of the top three concerns of Southeast Asians this year, associated mostly with disputes linked to China. For example, the possible outbreak of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait will destabilize the region, according to 43.3% of the respondents, while 28.7% believe that ASEAN countries will be forced to take sides. Once it happens, 45.6% of them said their countries must oppose the use of force through diplomatic measures.
Around 54.5% of Filipino respondents also chose that option, with 20.2% saying the Philippine government must facilitate military support for Taiwan. The survey also revealed that showing support for China is not an option for respondents from Indonesia, the Philippines, or Vietnam at all. "A conflict over the Taiwan Strait carries the most immediate and serious consequences on the Philippines just by geographical proximity alone," the ASEAN Studies Centre said. "It is also the most likely US ally in the region to be asked to facilitate support for US forces."
The study devoted sections to Southeast Asians' perception of China as it was still regarded as the most influential economic and political-strategic power in the region, but researchers found significant declines in the percentages. It also said at least 6 out of 10 said they were worried about China's expanding influence in the ASEAN. Moreover, nearly half or 49.8% of the respondents have either "little confidence" or "no confidence" in China to "do the right thing" to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance. "Only 29.5% are either 'confident' or 'very confident' that China will step up to the plate. Overall, the percentage of distrust of China has dwindled from 58.1% in 2022 to 49.8% this year," proponents said in the survey.
High distrust levels were noticed in Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore. "Among those who distrust China, 41.4% think that China's economic and military power can be used to threaten their country's interest and sovereignty," the study shared. "This view is shared strongly in Vietnam (65.4%), the Philippines (62.9%), Cambodia (44.0%), Malaysia (41.7%), Indonesia (35.7%), and Singapore (35.0%)."
Researchers also said the United States' popularity in the region continued to rise compared to the East Asian giant, with the European Union and Japan remaining to be the top choices of respondents in hedging against the uncertainties of the US-China strategic rivalry.
Source: cnnphilippines.com
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